投资人在股东信、访谈、雪球上公开讲过的观点，加上知名投资节目和名人对个股的看法，按发表时间排列。每条都附原文出处，原话逐字照录；投资人谈自己 13F 持仓的，「说完之后」那一行是同一季度 13F 上的实际操作。
2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入奈飞。他说奈飞每年 170 亿美元以上的内容预算是小竞争对手负担不起的；过去对手太多时网络效应发挥不出来，如今许多对手失败或流失用户，既说明奈飞护城河的质量，也带来用户回流的机会。
Now, many of these rivals have failed or are losing users, which highlights the quality of Netflix’s ‘moat’ but also presents an opportunity as those customers return to Netflix.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入的优步依靠双边网络效应，竞争对手大多已消失，经营现金流从 2019 年的 -43 亿美元转为 2025 年的 100 亿美元以上。对于自动驾驶的威胁，他认为特斯拉、Waymo 等更可能借用优步的分发渠道和全球牌照。
Some see AVs as a threat to Uber, but we think it is more likely that Tesla, Waymo, etc., will use Uber’s distribution and global licenses to reach customers and maximise their asset usage rather than having to get licenses, build an app, and get tens of millions of people to download.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入的万事达受益于消费者越多、商户越必须接受的网络效应；全球仍有约 14 亿成年人没有银行账户，B2B 支付市场更大，增长空间充足。
It benefits from a classic network effect: the more consumers use the card, the more merchants are forced to accept it, making it difficult for a new entrant to replicate.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入折扣零售商 TJX（TJ Maxx、Marshalls）。他说 TJX 靠灵活的供应链和与品牌数十年的关系低价买入过剩库存，约 1400 名买手对接 2.1 万家供应商，「寻宝」式购物体验是电商难以复制的。
Growth comes from physical store expansion and taking market share from traditional department stores.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入 AppLovin。他说它的护城河是 AI 广告推荐引擎 AXON：广告主回报更高、开发者收入更高，双方都难以离开；与按曝光收费的谷歌、Meta 不同，AppLovin 按广告带来的消费额抽成。
AXON creates a powerful network effect by matching the right ads to the right users, driving better returns for advertisers and higher payouts for app developers, which makes it very hard for either side to leave.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入台积电。他说台积电生产全球约 90% 的最先进芯片，护城河是在最小制程上无可匹敌的技术领先，加上建一座先进工厂就要 200 亿美元的资本门槛；增长来自 AI 训练和推理带来的算力需求。
Its ‘moat’ is an unmatched technological lead in making the smallest chips, protected by the capital barrier of the $20bn it costs to build just one advanced factory.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。他说加入万事达后同时持有两家卡组织，因为支付是不管 AI 如何发展都会增长的少数行业，两家同样优秀，合持既能让支付敞口超过 6%，又不至于单一个股风险过高或违反基金集中度规定。
We now own both Visa and Mastercard in the portfolio as payments is one of the few sectors that we expect to grow no matter what happens with AI, and Mastercard and Visa are equally good businesses.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入 Nextpower。它生产让太阳能板追踪太阳的支架和软件，外包制造让固定成本很低，专有软件让客户难以更换；增长来自可再生能源需求，尤其是建在数据中心旁的清洁电力。
Nextpower technology increases the energy yield of a solar installation by 20% to 30% compared to traditional panels bolted in a fixed position.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入 GE Vernova。它的设备发电量约占全球三分之一，护城河来自能源基础设施的规模和高转换成本；增长来自电网升级和 AI 数据中心的自建电源，在手订单 1630 亿美元，约为 2025 年收入的 4 倍。
Its competitive ‘moat’ stems from the scale and high switching costs of energy infrastructure: once its turbines are installed, customers are locked into high-margin, inflation-protected service contracts for decades.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。在卖出名单中，他对梅特勒-托利多的理由是：今年以来基础增长只有 1%，不足以支撑它一贯的溢价估值。
Underlying growth so far this year is only 1%, which isn’t enough to justify its traditionally premium valuation.2026 年上半年，特里·史密斯调整了「什么都不做」的策略，组合换手率升到 51.8%，开始更多考虑基本面和股价动量。新买入 Veeva。他说 Veeva 在药企客户关系软件中份额约 80%，药企一旦用它管理临床试验和合规就很难更换；他认为 Veeva 是被「SaaS 末日」误伤、增长更快或估值更低的公司之一。
Its competitive ‘moat’ is built on extremely high switching costs: once a drug company integrates Veeva to manage strict clinical trials and regulatory compliance, it is risky and expensive to replace it.特里·史密斯坦言，诺和诺德把减肥药这一三十年来最激动人心的药物领域的领先地位拱手让人，还没能阻止美国市场的违规仿制。他修正了「只投连傻瓜都能经营的公司」这一信条，承认管理层的影响比想象中大。不过公司已更换 CEO 和董事会，13 倍市盈率几乎没有任何预期，他说如果没持有，可能会考虑买入。
Novo Nordisk managed to reaffirm my belief that you should never say ‘Things can’t get any worse’.疫情期间居家办公推动了飞塔防火墙的部署，之后收入增速回落，市场又对其续约周期的收入潜力感到失望，股价大跌。史密斯趁机买入，并评论说在依赖业绩指引、流动性有限的市场里，略低于乐观指引的业绩就会引发剧烈下跌。
We bought Fortinet after its shares had suffered from a fall as it came down from the Covid related highs of revenue growth when its FortiGate firewall systems were deployed so that we could work from home.史密斯卖出了百事和百富门。他认为无论诺和诺德这笔投资最终结果如何，减肥药及其影响都会长期存在，而百事的零食业务首当其冲；烈酒行业还要面对 Z 世代饮酒减少和大麻合法化的双重逆风。
Brown-Forman and PepsiCo’s snack business seem to us to be directly in the crosshairs of the impact of reduced appetites from weight loss drugs.Intuit 2021 年收购 Mailchimp 后，史密斯认为这超出了它的能力圈，而且价格大约贵了三倍，于是卖出。此后 Mailchimp 的表现不佳逐渐反映在股价上，他开始重建仓位，希望管理层已从这次教训中有所收获。
We have started to rebuild a stake in the hope that the management has learned from the debacle.菲利普莫里斯第五次进入基金年度贡献前五。史密斯认为它在加热不燃烧烟草和尼古丁袋等减害产品上的行业领先布局，正在持续兑现。
Philip Morris makes its fifth appearance as it continues to show the benefits of its industry leading move into reduced-risk products (‘RRPs’) such as ‘heat-not-burn’ tobacco products and its nicotine pouch business.作为薪酬与人力资源软件服务商，ADP 受到美国就业市场走弱的影响。史密斯说他们并不依赖管理层的收入指引，但市场依赖，因此带着几分紧张希望指引是保守的。
In view of the outlook for this core market we hope — with some nervousness — that the guidance management has given on future revenues is conservative.硕腾是全球领先的动物药企业，受益于宠物医疗支出的长期增长。兽药领域没有数十亿美元级的重磅药，因此仿制药竞争较少。股价曾因骨关节炎止痛药 Librela 的副作用担忧而走弱，史密斯借此建仓，并说他咨询的兽医仍认为利大于弊。
Zoetis is the leading veterinary pharmaceutical company.2024 年史赛克第五次进入 Fundsmith 业绩贡献前五，受益于疫情期间积压的择期手术陆续完成。特里·史密斯借此重复他们的信条：赚钱要靠老朋友。
Stryker, which is making its 5th appearance, is benefitting from work on the backlog of elective surgical procedures which built up during the pandemic.2024 年 IDEXX 拖累了业绩，原因是疫情期间养宠热潮过后，看兽医的频率放缓。特里·史密斯说，IDEXX 是一个有真正长期增长前景领域的行业龙头，而且一旦卖出恐怕很难再买回来，所以他们打算继续持有，忍受跑输的痛苦。
As the industry leader in an area with real long-term growth prospects and a stock where we would probably struggle to buy back our position if we sold it, we intend to continue holding IDEXX and to try to smile through the pain of underperformance.2024 年 Fundsmith 卖出了味好美。特里·史密斯说，味好美把原材料涨价转嫁出去的速度太慢，压缩了利润率；通胀又让消费者转向超市自有品牌，竞争更激烈。2023 年时他就指出，味好美餐饮业务的利润率还没恢复到疫情前水平。
We sold McCormick as we had been disappointed by the slow response which the company exhibited in its ability to pass on input cost inflation so compressing its margins, together with its exposure to own label competition which has stiffened as inflation has caused consumers to trade down.2023 年微软第八次进入 Fundsmith 业绩贡献前五。特里·史密斯回顾说，2011 年他们以约 25 美元开始买入时招来了尖锐批评，2023 年底股价是 376 美元。
Microsoft appears for the eighth time having attracted strident criticism when we started buying at about $25 a share in 2011 (2023 year end price $376).2023 年雅诗兰黛是 Fundsmith 拖累最大的股票，当年卖出。特里·史密斯说，雅诗兰黛在疫情后中国重新开放和旅游零售市场中，没有处理好供需，暴露出供应链的严重不足；同样面对中国市场，欧莱雅处理得好得多。
We sold our stake in Estée Lauder whose mishandling of the demand/supply situation in China following reopening post Covid and in the travel retail market revealed serious inadequacies in its supply chain.2022 年 Fundsmith 卖出了自 2015 年分拆就持有的 PayPal。特里·史密斯说，PayPal 在线上支付领先，却没有经营好疫情期间新获得的客户，不控制成本，还追逐明显高价的收购。他们曾建议把资本回报率纳入管理层薪酬考核，没有被采纳；之后 Elliott 入股反而拿到了董事席位。
PayPal seems intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.特里·史密斯认为收入增长放缓可能促使科技公司不再把钱当作免费的，停掉主业之外前景不佳的项目。对 Alphabet，他点名巨额亏损的「其他赌注」，说闪电不会两次击中同一个地方，而它有很好的核心在线搜索和广告业务。
It has a good core online search and advertising business.2022 年 Meta 是 Fundsmith 拖累最大的股票。特里·史密斯说，加息让高估值股票跌得更多，而 Meta 还面临监管和反垄断压力，又宣布在元宇宙上大举投入。他认为如果停掉或削减元宇宙开支，他们持有的就是一家市盈率只有个位数的领先通讯和数字广告公司。
Meta has its well-publicised problems with the regulatory and competition authorities and has announced a large spend on developing the so-called metaverse which it changed its name from Facebook to reflect.2021 年 PayPal 是 Fundsmith 表现最差的股票，打破了「让赢家继续跑」的规律。市场担心它为打造「超级应用」把用户引向支付系统而毁掉价值，它有意收购 Pinterest 更加深了这种担心。特里·史密斯说，他们宁愿 PayPal 专注于自己的本行。
We may be wrong but we would prefer if PayPal stuck to its knitting.2019 年 3M 是 Fundsmith 表现最差的股票，当年卖出。特里·史密斯说，卖出 3M 是因为对现任管理层的资本配置决策越来越怀疑。
With 3M we were acting on growing doubts about the current management’s capital allocation decisions胡椒博士是 Fundsmith 自成立起就持有的股票。2018 年 Keurig Green Mountain 收购胡椒博士，特里·史密斯看不懂这笔交易的战略逻辑，于是卖出。他提醒，可口可乐与 Keurig 也尝试过类似的合作，最后不了了之。
We found the strategic rationale for the acquisition by Keurig Green Mountain difficult to comprehend and so took our leave of the situation.数据隐私风波后买入 Facebook 是 Fundsmith 最有争议的决定之一。特里·史密斯列出它的数字：日活 15 亿、月活 23 亿，2017 年资本回报率 30%、营业利润率 50%，过去五年收入年增 49%。为应对风波它大幅增加安全和内容审核开支，反而抬高了竞争门槛。市盈率 19.7 倍，与标普 500 相当，他认为很便宜。
Our Facebook holding has cost us some performance to date and no doubt it will continue to be a difficult stock to hold in terms of media attention, but we have often found that the only time you can hope to buy stock in great businesses at a cheap valuation is when they have a glitch.显示更早的 9 条已显示 30 / 39