投资人在股东信、访谈、雪球上公开讲过的观点，加上知名投资节目和名人对个股的看法，按发表时间排列。每条都附原文出处，原话逐字照录；投资人谈自己 13F 持仓的，「说完之后」那一行是同一季度 13F 上的实际操作。
达摩达兰分析 AI 资本开支如何流向芯片、网络设备、电力和数据中心公司，英伟达是最大受益者。他说自己大部分组合选择跟随市场共识，持有七巨头中除特斯拉和英伟达以外的五家，其中亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、微软都是 AI 资本开支大户；但过去一两年新增资金大多放在收益 4% 的短期国债里，组合现金比平时多，他承认少赚了，但睡得更好。
I am personally going with the "market consensus' choice for the bulk of my portfolio, since I do hold five of the Mag Seven (all except Tesla and Nvidia) and four of my holdings in this group (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft) are heavy investors in AI cap ex英伟达市值一度超过 5 万亿美元后，达摩达兰用「保本收入」倒推：要撑起当前市值，一家公司五年后需要做到多少收入。他提醒「定价高」不等于「高估」，但就他自己的判断，支撑英伟达和 OpenAI 当前定价所需的收入增长和利润率不太可能实现；他也说别人得出相反结论完全可能。
I think that the pathway that you would need (in terms of revenue growth and profitability) to justify Nvidia's and OpenAI's current pricing is improbable, but that is just my view, and it is entirely possible that you have an alternate perspective, leading to the conclusion that they are undervalued.DeepSeek 用低成本做出大模型后，达摩达兰认为 AI 市场会分成低投入、易同质化和高投入、高利润两条路，AI 芯片市场因此会比原来预想的小。他把英伟达每股价值从 2024 年 9 月的 87 美元下调到 78 美元，认为 123 美元的股价即使在下跌后仍然高估。他 2023、2024 年夏天已先后卖掉一半和四分之一的英伟达，仍保留一部分。
The other is that the stock is overvalued, at its current price of $123 per share, even after the markdown this week.英伟达财报收入和盈利都超预期，股价却跌了 8%、蒸发 2000 多亿美元市值。达摩达兰说自己不擅长交易，不判断动量变化，而是借财报更新了对英伟达的估值：把它拆成 AI 芯片、汽车芯片和其余业务（加密、游戏）三块。他认为交易者希望它维持现在的增速，这既不现实也危险；他对 2023 年夏天卖掉一半、保留一半的决定很坦然。
While traders may be disappointed with Nvidia’s earnings release, and wish it could keep its current pace going, I think it is both unrealistic and dangerous to expect it to do so.在对七巨头的估值里，达摩达兰认为特斯拉、Meta 接近合理价，Alphabet、苹果、亚马逊离价值不远，微软和英伟达则高估，英伟达尤其明显。他说这两家恰好是最直接受益于 AI 热潮的公司，他的高估结论也许只说明自己想象不出 AI 能做多大，但他已经在英伟达的估值里计入了大量 AI 价值。
It may be coincidence, but these are the two companies that have benefited most directly from the AI buzz, and my findings of over valuation may just reflect my lack of imagination on how big AI can get as a business.