投资人在股东信、访谈、雪球上公开讲过的观点，加上知名投资节目和名人对个股的看法，按发表时间排列。每条都附原文出处，原话逐字照录；投资人谈自己 13F 持仓的，「说完之后」那一行是同一季度 13F 上的实际操作。
2026 年初，达摩达兰算出美股隐含股权风险溢价为 4.23%，几乎等于 1960–2025 年的平均。他认为市盈率偏高值得担心，但盈利增长强劲、现金回报丰厚（2025 年标普 500 公司回购超过一万亿美元），多空双方都有理由。他对「泡沫」一词保持警惕：1999 年末风险溢价低到 2.05%，而现在处在历史区间的中部。
I am leery of the bubble word, especially used in the context of this market, since unlike the end of 1999, when the ERP got as low as 2.05%, the current ERP is more in the middle of the historic range.鲍威尔形容股市「估值相当高」，达摩达兰同意美股定价偏贵。但他用席勒 1871–2025 年的数据回测了按 CAPE 择时的策略，认为从「贵」跳到「泡沫」再据此行动要难得多：择时指标越不完整，越可能在等一场不会来的回调；即使做足功课，择时依然充满噪音，市场错误定价的时间可能比你撑得更久。
As someone who buys into the notion that market timing is the impossible dream, you may find it surprising that I think that Powell is right in his assessment that stocks are richly priced, but that said, I will try to explain why making the leap into concluding that stocks are in a bubble, and acting on that conclusion are much more difficult to do.年初达摩达兰给标普 500 估值 5262 点，比年初的 5882 点低约 12%。3 月上半月股权风险溢价从 4.35% 升到 4.68%，反映关税和经济的不确定性。他认为风险溢价的走势会决定美股是企稳、继续下跌还是反弹；即使经过 3 月的回调，指数仍高于他的估值，而过去几周发生的事只会拉低而不是抬高合理价值。
Even with the drawdown in prices that we have seen through March 10, the index remains above my estimated value, and while that value reflected what I saw at the start of the year, what has happened in the last few weeks has lowered the fair value, not raised it.2025 年初，标普 500 按过去十二个月盈利计算的市盈率为 24.16，高于 1970 年以来每个十年的平均。达摩达兰认为通胀、关税和战争会带来很大波动，他更愿意看到更高的股权风险溢价；但当前溢价不像 1999 年末那样只有 2%，所以他不站在泡沫派一边。他对盈利、利率和风险溢价做了模拟，结论是在当前价位，美股高估的概率是 80%，低估的概率只有 20%。
Put simply, at today's price levels, there is an 80% chance that stocks are overvalued and only a 20% chance that they are undervalued.2024 年初，达摩达兰用分析师一致预期的盈利和当时的利率给标普 500 估值，结论是美股高估约 9.2%，而 2023 年初还略显低估。他提醒这个估值有两个风险：经济未必软着陆，盈利可能低于或高于预期；市场寄望 2024 年降息，但十年期国债利率更多取决于通胀而不是美联储。他说自己不擅长择时，不会因此买指数看跌期权或降低股票仓位。
Unlike early in 2023, when stocks looked slightly under valued, with consensus earnings numbers and prevailing rates, stocks look over valued by about 9.2%, with a similar structure today.