投资人在股东信、访谈、雪球上公开讲过的观点，加上知名投资节目和名人对个股的看法，按发表时间排列。每条都附原文出处，原话逐字照录；投资人谈自己 13F 持仓的，「说完之后」那一行是同一季度 13F 上的实际操作。
标普 500 8 月第一周已涨 3.1%、创历史新高，收于 7723 点。Tom Lee 在给客户的视频中预测本月可能涨到 7900–8000 点：市场此前盘整了八到十周，底部越大，突破越大，技术面看很积极。他仍看好半导体、DRAM 和存储，但认为这轮上涨会由七巨头、软件和以太坊带动，投资者应保持分散。
The market had been consolidating for the last eight to 10 weeks, and as you know, the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout,美伊达成停火，油价单日暴跌 16% 以上，道指涨 1300 多点。Tom Lee 认为底部已经出现：上周战争在恶化、油价在涨，股市却没有跌；现在战事在降温，股市正在回到历史高点的路上。他预计年底标普 500 到 7300 点；随着油价企稳回落，此前跌得便宜的板块会重新受到追捧。
I think the bottom's in because last week was a period where the war was getting worse and oil was going up, but stocks weren't going down,2026 年初，达摩达兰算出美股隐含股权风险溢价为 4.23%，几乎等于 1960–2025 年的平均。他认为市盈率偏高值得担心，但盈利增长强劲、现金回报丰厚（2025 年标普 500 公司回购超过一万亿美元），多空双方都有理由。他对「泡沫」一词保持警惕：1999 年末风险溢价低到 2.05%，而现在处在历史区间的中部。
I am leery of the bubble word, especially used in the context of this market, since unlike the end of 1999, when the ERP got as low as 2.05%, the current ERP is more in the middle of the historic range.标普 500 今年涨了 17%，收于 6886 点，超过 Tom Lee 年初给的 6600 点目标。他预计 2026 年涨到 7700 点，牛市进入第四年：市场一直在爬「忧虑之墙」，而这堵墙本身就是牛市的顺风；新一任美联储会更鸽派，利好下半年。他继续看好与 AI、加密货币相关的科技股，以及材料、能源和金融股。
The significant 'Wall of Worry' is a tailwind for bull market.鲍威尔形容股市「估值相当高」，达摩达兰同意美股定价偏贵。但他用席勒 1871–2025 年的数据回测了按 CAPE 择时的策略，认为从「贵」跳到「泡沫」再据此行动要难得多：择时指标越不完整，越可能在等一场不会来的回调；即使做足功课，择时依然充满噪音，市场错误定价的时间可能比你撑得更久。
As someone who buys into the notion that market timing is the impossible dream, you may find it surprising that I think that Powell is right in his assessment that stocks are richly priced, but that said, I will try to explain why making the leap into concluding that stocks are in a bubble, and acting on that conclusion are much more difficult to do.Tom Lee 认为 4 月低点是一次投降式的大清洗，VIX 一度飙到 60，这种出清和重启正是新牛市的特征：一场迷你熊市之后，牛市重生。他预计之后的回调都会比较浅，下半年有放松监管和减税利好，美联储 2026 年也会更积极地降息；下半年他更看好小盘股。
I think what happened at the April lows — which was very capitulatory, and that was a huge liquidation event, and we had a VIX spike to 60 — that is the kind of flush and reset that I would associate with a new bull market,年初达摩达兰给标普 500 估值 5262 点，比年初的 5882 点低约 12%。3 月上半月股权风险溢价从 4.35% 升到 4.68%，反映关税和经济的不确定性。他认为风险溢价的走势会决定美股是企稳、继续下跌还是反弹；即使经过 3 月的回调，指数仍高于他的估值，而过去几周发生的事只会拉低而不是抬高合理价值。
Even with the drawdown in prices that we have seen through March 10, the index remains above my estimated value, and while that value reflected what I saw at the start of the year, what has happened in the last few weeks has lowered the fair value, not raised it.关税不确定性下，三大指数月初都跌了 1% 以上。Tom Lee 说他理解投资者观望，因为不知道关税会多严重、持续多久；但市场已经大幅修正、情绪大降，ADP 就业数据很差股市却上涨，说明坏消息已大量计入。他认为情绪上已经经历了一场熊市，3 到 5 月可能大涨 10%–15%。
And so, if we're seeing the market not fade on bad news, that means we've already priced in a lot of things that would scare us.Chamath 说自己第一次在一段时间里比较悲观：关税、移民放缓和 DOGE 紧缩可能让增长放慢。他展示七巨头与其他公司远期市盈率的收敛，认为七巨头已经按完美定价，世界一旦变化就会均值回归，所以美股边际上有点贵、吸引力不大。
so I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive2025 年初，标普 500 按过去十二个月盈利计算的市盈率为 24.16，高于 1970 年以来每个十年的平均。达摩达兰认为通胀、关税和战争会带来很大波动，他更愿意看到更高的股权风险溢价；但当前溢价不像 1999 年末那样只有 2%，所以他不站在泡沫派一边。他对盈利、利率和风险溢价做了模拟，结论是在当前价位，美股高估的概率是 80%，低估的概率只有 20%。
Put simply, at today's price levels, there is an 80% chance that stocks are overvalued and only a 20% chance that they are undervalued.美联储把 2025 年降息次数预期减少两次，股市大跌。Tom Lee 认为恐慌会很短暂：基本面没变；VIX 单日飙升 74%，是史上第二大涨幅，而历史上四次最大的 VIX 飙升后，股市都在一个月内完全收复；标普也在测试 2024 年多次反弹的 50 日均线。他认为美联储只是想「放慢一点」，仍然支持市场。
This was a painful day, but the fundamentals did not change. This is why we see this as a 'back up the truck' moment.此前一直看多且说对了的 Tom Lee 转向谨慎，预计股市可能回调 7%–10%：9 月历来是一年中最弱的月份，自 1950 年以来标普平均下跌 0.7%；今年八个月里涨了七个月，接下来还有 9 月降息和大选让人紧张，8 月非农数据也可能引发波动。他说要谨慎，但做好逢低买入的准备。
I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks,疲弱的非农数据引发衰退担忧，日经指数一天暴跌 12.4%，VIX 恐慌指数从 23 飙到 50 以上，纳指进入调整。Tom Lee 认为关键在于美国金融条件会不会收紧、市场会不会冻结；但利率在下降、消费者状况仍不错，事后看这会是一场「增长恐慌」。VIX 见顶回落时，复苏可能和下跌一样快。
But with interest rates falling and the consumer still in pretty good shape, I think on the other side of this it'll look like a growth scare.Tom Lee 预计标普 500 到 6 月底涨到 5500 点、再创新高（当时 5283 点）。他的理由是通胀低于预期，就业在降温但没有急剧恶化，这对股市是好局面；4 月的下跌还没完全收复，5 月的反弹会延续到 6 月。货币市场基金里有 6 万多亿美元现金，融资余额也远低于高点，投资者仓位并不重。
I think there's a fundamental case, which is inflation is coming in softer than expected, and I think the job market is cooling but not weakening dramatically — and I think that's a good situation for equities,标普 500 首次收在 4900 点上方，微软、Alphabet、Meta、苹果、亚马逊同一周发财报，还有美联储议息会议。Tom Lee 说 1 月底创新高在他们预期之中，这一周会决定还能涨多远：他们预计到 5000 点、也许更高，但之后市场会出现一段「气穴」。他认为美联储还没到降息的时候，关键看它的态度怎么变。
We were penciling in 5,000 [on the S & P 500], and we could maybe go higher,2024 年初，达摩达兰用分析师一致预期的盈利和当时的利率给标普 500 估值，结论是美股高估约 9.2%，而 2023 年初还略显低估。他提醒这个估值有两个风险：经济未必软着陆，盈利可能低于或高于预期；市场寄望 2024 年降息，但十年期国债利率更多取决于通胀而不是美联储。他说自己不擅长择时，不会因此买指数看跌期权或降低股票仓位。
Unlike early in 2023, when stocks looked slightly under valued, with consensus earnings numbers and prevailing rates, stocks look over valued by about 9.2%, with a similar structure today.