投资人在股东信、访谈、雪球上公开讲过的观点，加上知名投资节目和名人对个股的看法，按发表时间排列。每条都附原文出处，原话逐字照录；投资人谈自己 13F 持仓的，「说完之后」那一行是同一季度 13F 上的实际操作。
2025 年美国关税、评级下调、史上最长停摆和美联储独立性受质疑，削弱了市场对美国政府的信任，黄金涨 65%、白银涨 148%。达摩达兰指出比特币全年反而跌了 6.4%（以欧元计跌 17.4%），而且和美股的相关性远高于和金银的相关性，吸引的是追求风险的人，而不是规避风险的人。他认为现在下定论还太早，但至少 2025 年，失去信任的资金去了金银，而不是比特币。
It remains too early in bitcoin's life to pass final judgment, but if the story for bitcoin is that it will draw in investors who have lost trust in governments and central banks, it is clear that gold and silver were the draws, at least in 2025, not bitcoin.2025 年 10 月 10 日加密市场发生史上最大规模的杠杆爆仓，比特币从 12.6 万美元上方回落。Tom Lee 认为这轮阴跌反映了做市商受重创后的流动性收缩，2022 年类似的出清用了八周；但回顾过去几次回调，从低点反弹到新高的速度都快于下跌，因为恐慌卖盘之外，耐心的买家一直在等待。
The recovery from there to all-time highs will be faster than the decline. That's what happened in every crypto decline, because what you have is all the spooled up energy.达摩达兰一直认为比特币只能定价、不能估值，买不买取决于你对价格走势的判断。谈到企业把现金换成比特币，他认为对大多数公司来说这不但是坏主意，还应该被禁止：这会搅乱主业的故事线，让财报难以解读，也给管理层自肥打开方便之门。他说即使自己看多比特币也会这么主张，换成黄金、名画也一样。
As a general rule, I think it is not only a bad idea for most companies to invest their cash in bitcoin, but I would go further and also argue that they should banned from doing so.2025 年比特币大会期间，特朗普传媒、GameStop 等纷纷宣布买入比特币，股价却下跌。Saylor 认为这只是短期现象，长期看企业资产负债表上持有比特币已证明非常受欢迎，世界各地都在冒出比特币储备公司。他认为比特币网络是反脆弱的：参与者越多、越分散，协议就越难被篡改，也越能让大型经济主体放心把重量压上来。
The more actors that come into the ecosystem, the more diverse, the more distributed the protocol is, the more incorruptible it becomes, the more robust it becomes, and so that means the more trustworthy it becomes to larger economic actors who otherwise would be afraid to put all of their economic weight on the network.关税担忧下市场避险，比特币走弱。Saylor 认为美国经济前景和利率预期已经回落，市场处在宏观避险区间，一旦情绪翻转，比特币会报复性上涨；如果现在要押注 10 亿美元，唯一该做的就是把它押在作为长期价值储存手段的比特币上。他也认为需要国会通过数字资产框架，代币经济才能合规地发展起来。
And we're in this macro risk off zone. When that flips, I think Bitcoin will rip forward with a vengeance.作为白宫加密货币和 AI 事务主管，Sacks 解释政府建立比特币战略储备的理由：比特币是最早的加密货币，唯一没有发行方的币，高度去中心化，市值最大，15 年来从未被攻破。他还说美国过去过早卖掉了查没的比特币，储备的目标是长期持有、永不出售。
bitcoin's the original cryptocurrency it's the first one it's the only one that doesn't have an issuer right it's it's very decentralized关税消息引发全球股市抛售，比特币从 10.2 万美元上方跌到 9.5 万美元左右。Tom Lee 认为比特币今年仍会是表现最好的资产之一，但短期内它仍是风险资产，市场去杠杆时会先被卖出，2 月走势不乐观，甚至可能跌到 7 万美元，那将是买入机会。
Bitcoin I think still is going to be one of the best-performing asset classes this yearStrategy（原 MicroStrategy）创始人 Saylor 是比特币最大的企业持有者，本人与比特币利益直接相关。他把比特币比作网络空间里的曼哈顿：过去三百年里任何一年买曼哈顿都比前人贵一点，但投资自由世界的经济中心总是好投资。他说公司会一直在高位买入，并像曼哈顿开发商不断借债盖楼那样，持续发债买比特币。
I would have bought Manhattan 100 years ago, 200 years ago, every year for the past 300 years. You pay a little bit more than the person that bought Manhattan before you, but it's always a good investment to invest in the economic capital of the free world.特朗普胜选后比特币创下新高。Tom Lee 认为比特币年底前仍可能突破六位数、明年会更高：减半之后比特币越来越重要，监管压力在减轻，上涨空间很大。他还认为美国赤字很难只靠加税减支解决，比特币可能成为国库储备资产，币价上涨反而有助于抵消负债。
I think because [it's] post-halving and now bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant ... the regulatory overhang is diminishing — that there's a lot of upside from here.比特币自 3 月创下约 7.3 万美元新高后在 6 万–7 万美元之间横盘。Tom Lee 认为，比特币受到 Mt. Gox 交易所开始向债权人分发比特币的拖累，这是压了多年的一大抛压；7 月这个抛压消失后，下半年有理由期待比特币大幅反弹，他仍坚持比特币涨到 15 万美元的预测。
If I was invested in crypto, knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July, I'd think it's a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second half.